Publications and Datasets

Resilient futures: Acknowledging the shared challenges of early career food system researchers in uncertain times

Transforming food systems to deliver sustainable, equitable, and nutritious outcomes requires confronting profound global challenges, from climate change and biodiversity loss to widening inequities and persistent malnutrition. Early career researchers (ECRs), who make up a large proportion of the research workforce, hold unique potential to drive this transformation through fresh perspectives, systems thinking, and transdisciplinary collaboration. Yet they also face distinct barriers: precarious employment, limited funding, and institutional structures that privilege dominant knowledge systems, while undervaluing Indigenous and community-centred approaches. For many, particularly in resource-constrained or Indigenous contexts, these professional pressures are compounded by structural inequities, colonial legacies, and personal responsibilities, amplifying the emotional burden of engaging with such complex challenges. This paper explores strategies to empower ECRs to navigate food systems research without becoming overwhelmed. We highlight the importance of adaptability, mentorship, and building supportive networks, alongside recognition of Indigenous knowledge systems and the contextual realities shaping food systems across geographies. Collaboration and co-production emerge as critical pathways for innovation, trust-building, and collective action, while diverse outputs beyond peer-reviewed publications are essential to translate research into meaningful policy and practice. By embracing persistence, equity, and shared responsibility, ECRs can position themselves not as isolated individuals but as key actors in a global movement for resilient and just food systems. Balancing realism with optimism, we reaffirm the transformative potential of ECRs, and call on institutions, funders, and senior researchers to establish structures that enable them to thrive as changemakers in pursuit of a sustainable food future.

Diets, fruit and vegetable intake, and nutritional status in Sri Lanka: A scoping review

Suboptimal diets, including low fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake, are major contributors to malnutrition and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Sri Lanka. Understanding dietary patterns is essential for addressing these challenges. This scoping review synthesizes the literature on diet, F&V intake, and nutritional status across different population groups in Sri Lanka. Searches were conducted in PubMed in October 2023. In total, 30 publications on diet, 13 on F&V intake, and 26 on nutritional status met the inclusion criteria. Sri Lankan diets were found to be rice-dominant with limited variety of nutrient-dense foods such as animal-source foods (ASF) and F&V. Trends in nutritional status varied across life stages. Among children < 5, undernutrition was prevalent, with stunting affecting 14%–21%, wasting 10%–15%, and underweight 17%–21%. Anemia was found in 8%–15% of children < 5 and 25%–30% of pregnant women. Micronutrient deficiencies, particularly vitamin D, iron, and zinc, affected more than one-third of pregnant women. In adults, over one-third were overweight/obese, 8%–12% had diabetes, and 20%–25% had hypertension. Diet, F&V intake and nutrition outcomes also differed by socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic characteristics, with estate sector residents, Indian Tamil populations, and low-income groups disproportionately affected by poor diet quality, low F&V intake, insufficient nutrient intake and malnutrition, while women (vs. men) and urban (vs. rural/estate) residents exhibited higher prevalence of overweight/obesity and NCDs. This review revealed evidence gaps such as the lack of recent dietary intake data based on individual quantitative dietary assessments that limit understanding of current diet adequacy. Additionally, only one impact evaluation designed to improve diet was identified. More research is needed to understand how to effectively improve diet including increasing intake of F&V and ASF in Sri Lanka.

Gender attitudes in agriculture and positivity bias: A survey experiment in four countries in sub-Saharan Africa

Estimating the number of people eating biofortified foods on-farm and from markets: A detailed methodology and tool

Background Biofortification is a cost-effective and scalable approach to reduce micronutrient deficiencies. Currently there is scant data detailing the number (reach) and proportion (coverage) of individuals consuming biofortified foods, which is a key limitation for policymakers. Objective Develop a method to estimate the reach and coverage of biofortified foods using primary and secondary data sources. Methods We used data from 2023 to estimate the reach and coverage of zinc biofortified rice in Bangladesh and wheat in Pakistan, and vitamin A maize and cassava in Nigeria. Our calculation is divided into 5 phases: 1) seed availability, 2) agricultural production, 3) on-farm consumption, 4) off-farm consumption, and 5) overall national level reach and coverage. Phase 4 includes two consumption scenarios: full replacement and half replacement, where biofortified foods respectively account for 100% or 50% of the per capita consumption. Results In 2023, approximately 13 to 16 million people (8-9% of the population) consumed biofortified rice in Bangladesh. In Pakistan, between 97 to 173 million people consumed biofortified wheat (39-70% of the population). In Nigeria, biofortified maize was consumed by 42 to 66 million people (18-29% of the population) and biofortified cassava by 25 to 38 million people (11-17% of the population). Conclusions Our method estimates on-farm and off-farm reach and the reach/coverage of biofortified foods with visible and invisible traits. Because there is insufficient primary or secondary data describing the intake of biofortified foods, we estimated a range for off-farm reach. We estimate that in 2023, between 177 and 293 million people consumed the four biofortified crops explored in this analysis. This approach can be used to estimate the reach and coverage of other biofortified crops in other countries. More information about the consumption of these foods is needed to improve the accuracy of national reach and coverage estimates.

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: February 2026

This bulletin reports on food price trends from major markets in Papua New Guinea, for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025 based on data collected by Fresh Produce Development Authority (FPDA). Consistent data collection continues to be a challenge during the fourth quarter: no data was collected for the month of October (except for one round in Goroka and Kokopo, respectively). To provide up-to-date analysis, this bulletin incorporates all available data from October 2025 – January 2026 data. For Port Moresby, food price data were collected only for December and one round in January. This report compares Q4 2025 (November & December) prices with the same period in 2024 and 2023. Prices are reported in PGK per kilogram and represent real prices adjusted for inflation using the FAO Consumer Food Price Index (PCI) and price gaps (July 2025 to January 2026) filled using a growth rate calculated from the PNG National Statistical Office – June quarterly PCI data. This bulletin focuses on selected important staples (sweet potato, taro, cassava, cooking banana and rice), vegetables (aibika, English cabbage, capsicum, carrot, and choko-tips) and fruits (lemon, orange, pawpaw and pineapple). For longer time series data and interactive tools, visit the IFPRI website and download food price data here.

Commercial small scale vegetable producers and inclusive agricultural transformation in Odisha: An introduction to the methods and hypotheses of the INCATA project

The research project “Tracking commercial small-scale producers for inclusive agricultural transformation” (INCATA) studied the relationships between commercial small-scale producers (farmers) and micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in horticulture value chains in Odisha, India. The goal was to understand whether and how these relationships could contribute to inclusive agricultural trans-formation. The project was designed to address several questions. This was based on the assumption that im-proved understanding of these dynamics will inform more effective policy design and implementation in support of inclusive agricultural transformation: 1)What factors kickstart agricultural commercialization? How do small-scale producers become commercial, how do MSMEs upstream and downstream of the farm get started, and how do these two sets of actors co-develop together? 2)To what degree does the co-development of commercial small-scale farms and supporting MSMEs translate into poverty reduction and women’s economic empowerment? Who is included, and who is excluded, or gets stuck at low levels of inclusion, or slips backward? What are the economic opportunities available for youth in the transformation process? 3)What policies and investments have the potential to accelerate the symbiotic co-development of commercial small-scale producers and MSMEs, and the inclusive effects of their co-development? To address these questions, INCATA focused on the value chain associated with commercial small-scale horticulture (vegetable cultivation) in Odisha. The vegetable value chain was selected because of the high level of participation and commercial orientation among small-scale vegetable producers, the high value of vegetable crops relative to staples, and the importance of vegetables for nutrition.

Are the relationships between actors in Odisha’s vegetable value chains parasitic or symbiotic?

This project note identifies the following key findings in answer to the question of whether the relationships between off-farm micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and commercial small-scale vegetable farmers in Odisha’s vegetable value chains are parasitic or symbiotic: Relationships between MSMEs and farms in vegetable value chains in Odisha are predominantly symbiotic, not exploitative. Contrary to common assumptions, we find little evidence for the existence of parasitic credit relations between traders, input suppliers and smallholder vegetable farmers. Relationships between MSMEs and farms in vegetable value chains in Odisha are predominantly symbiotic, not exploitative. Contrary to common assumptions, we find little evidence for the existence of parasitic credit relations between traders, input suppliers and smallholder vegetable farmers. Value chain credit is relatively uncommon. More than 90 percent of input suppliers and retailers provide no credit of any kind, and fewer than 2 percent of surveyed enterprises impose exclusive tied-credit obligations on buyers or sellers. Trade credit functions primarily as short-term working capital, not a means of control. Wholesalers allowed buyers to delay payments for vegetables for several days in almost 40 percent of their most recent sales transactions. Farmers are not heavily credit constrained. Half of vegetable farmers borrowed money to fund agriculture within the past year, and only 5 percent of non-borrowing vegetable farmers reported that they wished to access agricultural credit but were unable to. Most farmers borrowed from family and friends or self-help groups. Less than 2 percent of loans originated from wholesalers or input suppliers. Input suppliers are an important source of advisory services for farmers. Nearly half of farmers sought advice from input suppliers during their most recent purchase, and over half received it, largely free of charge. Wholesalers and retailers often provide transport services when sourcing or supplying vegetables. These services are usually costed into the price of goods received or sold, but are convenient for time- or mobility-constrained farmers and other trading partners. Much of the transport organized by traders is supplied by third-party service providers (transport businesses). Provision of other types of service by wholesalers, retailers, and input suppliers to their suppliers and customers are quite limited, indicative of an intermediate level of value chain transformation. Farmers undertake more product upgrading and value addition activities than wholesalers or retailers. Many farmers grade, wash, and remove damaged produce prior to sale, enhancing value capture and simultaneously reducing transaction costs for buyers. Market “thickness” and competition moderate exploitative behavior. Improvements in infrastructure, mobility, communications, and the spatial clustering of farms and MSMEs may limit the ability of marketing intermediaries to create dependencies among farmers, and improve access to information and markets, lowering barriers to entry and giving rise to outcomes that are more symbiotic than exploitative.

Does commercial small-scale vegetable farming production enhance farmer welfare?

This project note analyzes links between agricultural commercialization and producer welfare by comparing vegetable farmers with non-vegetable farmers, who mainly grow rice. The following key findings stand out. Vegetable farming is an engine of smallholder commercialization in Odisha. Vegetable producers sell 74 percent of the vegetables they produce, about double the market surplus for rice. Vegetable farming households are of modestly higher average socioeconomic status than non-vegetable farmers. They are significantly better educated, more likely to belong to a general caste and less likely to belong to a scheduled tribe, but the size of differences in the characteristics of the two groups is not large. Access to land, irrigation, and midland plots are strongly associated with the adoption of commercial vegetable farming. Vegetable farmers operate slightly more land, lease in land more frequently, cultivate more midland plots, and are nearly twice as likely to have irrigated land. Vegetable farming is associated with higher agricultural income, but not total household income. Vegetable farmers earn 24 percent higher agricultural incomes on average, but total household incomes do not differ significantly from those of non-vegetable farmers, likely due to lower participation in non-farm employment. Vegetable commercialization is associated with better diet quality. Vegetable farming households consume a greater diversity of vegetables more frequently and have significantly higher household diet diversity scores than non-vegetable farmers. Income inequality is not higher among vegetable adopters. Gini coefficients for agricultural and household income are similar between vegetable and non-vegetable farmers, and similar across blocks with higher an lower concentrations of commercial vegetable cultivation, suggesting that smallholder commercialization has not exacerbated inequality. Spatial clustering of vegetable production is associated with higher agricultural incomes. Vegetable and non-vegetable farmers in blocks with high concentrations of vegetable farms have higher average agricultural incomes than those in blocks with less vegetable farming. This pattern suggests that links exist between initial conditions such as infrastructure, irrigation, and market access that foster the formation of spontaneous clusters, while intra-cluster features such as MSME density and knowledge spillovers may play a role in deepening agricultural commercialization and raising farm productivity.

Who is included in Odisha’s vegetable value chains, and on what terms?

This project note explores inclusion in Odisha’s vegetable value chains by asking: (1) Who – in terms of gender, caste, and community – participates in input supply, farming, wholesale, and retail, and; (2) What are the terms of their participation into the value chain —looking at the entry requirements, business characteristics, and the nature of benefits derived. The second half examines retailing, which is the most inclusive off-farm node. It looks at how participation varies by gender, caste, and community across several factors: entry requirements, invested capital, scale of operation, business practices, and incomes earned. This reveals how accessible retailing is to new entrants and how benefits differ across groups.

Spontaneous vegetable production clusters: How do they form, and how inclusive are they?

A prominent but understudied aspect of Odisha’s recent agricultural transformation has been the emergence of spontaneous vegetable clusters. We summarize preliminary findings from three case studies of clusters that emerged organically – eggplant in Nayagarh district, pointed gourd and cauliflower in Cuttack district. The aims of this research effort are four-fold: How did these clusters emerge? How do these production clusters link with mid-stream actors and how do they co-evolve? What are the social dynamics of inclusion – across caste, class, gender and generation? What roles do these different groups perform in these production clusters and on what terms?

Women’s voice and agency in “organized” vegetable clusters: The Agriculture Production Cluster (APC) program in Odisha, India

A key policy tool for inclusive agrifood system transformation has been organizing women farmers into collectives. This is especially important for diversifying production into high-value sectors such as horticulture and livestock. Empirical evidence from around the world shows that some of these efforts can be transformative, but the impact is mixed and can involve tradeoffs (Malhotra et al. 2024; Quisumbing et al. 2021; Twyman et al. 2022). The extent to which programmatic interventions can enable inclusive and sustainable value chain participation thus depends on specific design principles. These includes the selection of commodities, bundling of interventions that tackle multiple constraints simultaneously, the presence of committed staff and champions for effective implementation, and a pathway to institutionalize these interventions (Narayanan et al. 2024, for example). In contrast to clusters that develop spontaneously, where incentives and supportive institutions may be present already and may have spawned these clusters to start with, the viability of organized clusters depends crucially on these inputs. In this note, we bring together qualitative and quantitative data from a larger research effort (See Project Note 1) to spotlight the experiences of women farmers in organized clusters in the Indian state of Odisha. We focus on the Agriculture Production Cluster Program (APC). The goals of our research are to understand how organized clusters can foster and support diversification into vegetable cultivation. A second goal is to understand women’s experience in vegetable production within these clusters. A third goal is to reflect on the broader design and implementation of the APC program and its sustainability in a context where many cluster interventions are known to implode or fade after the program ends (Belton et al. 2025; Narayanan et al. 2025).

Urban Food Environments and Diets (UFED) online tool: Urban considerations

Specific considerations for planning and conducting assessments in urban contexts are detailed in this Urban Considerations resource, a supplement to other guidance available through the Urban Food Environments and Diets (UFED) web tool. The document covers topics such as sampling of urban communities, participatory mapping of food environments, data collection in slums and informal settlements, and identification and classification of ultra-processed foods and food consumed away from home. The Urban Considerations resource also provides a set of recommendations for improving linkages between dietary and food environment assessments, starting at the planning and design stages.

Mindset or economics: What explains the dominance of maize in Malawi

Malawi’s policy ambitions increasingly emphasize the need for greater crop and diet diversity. De-spite these stated goals, the country’s food system continues to revolve around maize, both in pro-duction and consumption. This brief discusses the economic imperatives that drive low-income, land-constrained Malawians to prioritize maize. Only by addressing these underlying incentives can policy effectively reduce maize dominance and support the diversification agenda it seeks to advance.

Does commercial small-scale aquaculture drive inclusive agricultural transformation in Odisha?

This mixed methods analysis of the status of small-scale aquaculture in Odisha and its potential to induce inclusive agricultural transformation yields the following key findings: Most of Odisha’s population eat fish, but widely observed religious customs limit fish consumption to three days per week for most people. This means that aggregate demand for fish is about 60 percent lower than it might be in a fish-eating state with a similar population and no dietary restrictions, resulting in low derived demand for aquaculture development to serve local markets. Odisha faces a “second mover” disadvantage in farming fish. Most of the farmed fish in Odisha’s markets is ‘imported’ from neighboring Andhra Pradesh, which has a long-established, highly productive medium- and large-scale commercial freshwater aquaculture sector that can outcompete farms in Odisha on price, even after accounting for transport costs. Aquaculture growth in Odisha is concentrated along the coast, in capital-intensive shrimp farming clusters linked to global export markets. Intensive shrimp farming is difficult for small-scale producers to enter or participate in successfully and has been linked to a variety of exclusionary outcomes including soil salinization, and conflicts over land. There is very little commercial small-scale freshwater aquaculture in Odisha. We found no evidence of major spontaneous clusters of inland aquaculture farms comparable to those found in neighboring West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh, suggesting that aquaculture plays a limited role in driving agricultural transformation in Odisha at present. Government schemes have doubled the number of community tanks and small private fishponds in some areas of Odisha over the past decade, but the spatial pattern of development atomized, and fish farming is mainly oriented toward subsistence production. Only 0.5 percent of farm households in six surveyed districts had a fishpond. Small-scale inland aquaculture in Odisha makes localized contributions to food and nutrition security. Households in rural areas with more ponds are more likely to have eaten fish recently. This is valuable for those households who benefit directly. Climate stress poses significant and growing challenges to aquaculture in Odisha’s semi-arid and cyclone-prone environment. These challenges are likely to intensify over time.

Who grows vegetables? Smallholder commercialization in Odisha, India

We analyze data from a house listing exercise, conducted as part of the INCATA project, covering 35,913 households across 154 villages in 24 blocks in six districts in Odisha, to assess the extent, patterns, and growth of vegetable farming. We successfully listed 27,189 of the 35,913 households; 69% of those we successfully listed reported being engaged in cultivation in the past year. Of these, 95% grew paddy, the most important staple grain in the state, while only 22% grew vegetables (this is equal to 15% of all those listed). A larger share of listed households (34%), however, had a kitchen garden; 24% of listed households had both a vegetable farm and a kitchen garden. Only 14% of those with kitchen garden also sell from the kitchen garden. Although only 15% of all those listed grew vegetables themselves, thrice as many had worked on others’ vegetables vegetable fields, highlighting the wider implications of vegetable cultivation for employment. Vegetable cultivation has a non-linear relationship with landholding size, with those owning around 2-5 acres (small farmers) or 10-12 acres (medium farmers) having a higher proportion of vegetable cultivators than others. This suggests that vegetable cultivation is both inclusive while also permitting larger – scale commercialization. Land leasing is widespread. Over 85% of those who began growing vegetables after 1950 started selling vegetables that same year, underlining the commercial orientation from the start. At the same time, growing for own consumption is an important driver for vegetable farming. The recent spurt in the numbers of vegetable farmers has been disproportionately in high “intensity” blocks, i.e. where there are more vegetable farmers, implying a clustering effect. Regionally, the recent growth is relatively greater in the coastal districts (Ganjam, Cuttack) and in what we refer to as the central spine (Anugul, Keonjhar and Koraput). Irrigation appears to be by far the most important correlate of vegetable cultivation. Contrary to popular perception that marketing constraints deter diversification into vegetables, water and land constraints prevent uptake; further, the most frequent reasons for those who give up vegetable production are water constraints and animal conflict. Further analysis will investigate in detail the enablers of and barriers to commercial vegetable cultivation.

How are vegetable markets in Odisha transforming?

Odisha’s market environment for vegetables is a complex mosaic of diverse institutions – including marketplaces regulated by the Odisha State Agricultural Marketing Board (OSAMB), those under local governments and those that private and unregulated. Since the 2000s, the State’s agricultural marketing policy has been progressively reformed to allow contract farming, establish private markets, free vegetable trade from regulatory purview and abolish fees associated with transacting in the regulated markets. This note presents results from a survey of 158 vegetable markets in six districts: Anugul, Bolangir, Cuttack, Ganjam, Keonjhar, and Koraput. It also covers four terminal markets in Bhubaneshwar, Puri, Rourkela, and Sambalpur. Contrary to popular belief about restrictive regulation and an overbearing state, over 90% of estimated vegetable deliveries in the study area arrive at unregulated markets. We estimate that each trader serves about 258-552 people and 4.1-8.39 operational holdings in the study area, depending on the season. There are approximately 18 retailers for every wholesaler. Vegetable markets have seen rapid transformation in recent years. Markets, especially private markets, have proliferated. More of them have become daily markets operating more days per week and hours per day. In 2025, they have a greater proportion and number of permanent stalls than in 2015. Both wholesalers and retailers have grown significantly in the past decade—wholesalers by 65% and retailers by 20%. Average quantities traded by both groups have increased, along with overall produce deliveries and transactions. Growth of volumes traded has been accompanied by market diffusion. The Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI) for volumes delivered and traded declined to 7/10th and 3/5th of 2015 levels, respectively. An overwhelming 89% of the markets registered a growth in arrivals over the decade. This transformation is reflected in the villages as well, based on data from a survey of 154 villages in the study area. Two groups – retailers who purchase from farmers and sell within the village and farmers who retail their own produce – have a significant presence and have maintain their presence over the decade. More villages (about 38%) have transporters today who serve as market intermediaries compared to about less than 13% a decade ago. Today, a majority of villages have traders visiting the village during high season to collect produce just as village traders often collect vegetables from farmers to sell to traders outside even though on average there are just 1-2 per village. Collectively, these findings suggest that most villages have local marketing options available. A key finding, however, is that vegetable markets—where much of the trade occurs—have limited or poor infrastructure. Further, it may be useful to revisit the process of tendering the functions of market maintenance and operations for a system with greater accountability.

How inclusive is transformation in Odisha’s vegetable value chains?

The research project “Tracking commercial small-scale producers for inclusive agricultural transformation” (INCATA) studied the relationships between commercial small-scale producers (farmers) and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), to understand whether and how these relationships could contribute to inclusive agricultural transformation.

How are the production practices of vegetable farmers in Odisha transforming?

Agricultural transformation and smallholder commercialization are accompanied and driven by deepening integration of farmers into input markets and associated technological change. This project note examines two related questions: (1) How do households enter commercial vegetable cultivation? (2) How have technologies used to produce vegetables changed over time? The following key findings stand out: Vegetable farming in Odisha is a long-standing activity. Most farmers entered vegetable cultivation over 20 years ago, with expansion accelerating 20–30 years back as markets deepened. Fewer than one in five respondents are first-generation vegetable farmers. Entry into vegetable farming is primarily self-financed. Over 80% of farmers required startup capital to purchase inputs or make plot modifications such as land levelling. These investments were funded mainly through agricultural earnings, migration income, or non-farm earnings. Self-help groups are also an important source of finance for these investments. Subsistence coexists with commercialization. Most farmers were partly motivated to start producing vegetables for home consumption, but virtually all sell some of what they produce. Marketed surpluses of vegetables have risen gradually, to reach over 70% by 2025, without displacing household self-provisioning, and own production accounts for around half of farmers’ vegetable consumption. Crop portfolios are both concentrated and diverse. Production is dominated by a small set of “commodity vegetables” (most importantly tomato and brinjal), alongside a wide array of niche crops grown by smaller numbers of farmers. Recent contraction in crop diversity and off-season production signals rising climate stress. The share of household growing vegetables in multiple seasons, and the number of crops produced per farm has fallen slightly, consistent with increasing climate stress and perhaps reflecting competitive pressures from out of state vegetable producers. Adoption of productivity enhancing agricultural technologies is at a transitional stage. Hybrid vegetable seed, inorganic fertilizers, pesticides, and mechanized land preparation are widely adopted, but adoption of more advanced technologies that could give rise to greater commoditization (e.g. seed trays, seedlings purchased from nurseries, plastic mulch, drip irrigation, drones) remains low. Adoption of environmentally friendly inputs such as vermicompost, organic pesticides, and insect traps is limited. Technology adoption is shaped by clustering and scale. Uptake of inputs, mechanization, and post-harvest handling tends to be greater in areas with high concentrations of vegetable production and among larger farms, reflecting agglomeration effects and access to service markets. Expansion of irrigation access has been a critical catalyst for smallholder vegetable commercialization. The number of irrigated parcels of land operated by surveyed households has grown 74 percent since 1980, with irrigation accelerating sharply after 2010. Improving access to irrigation post-2010 has spurred entry into vegetable cultivation and simultaneous adoption of a complementary bundle of productivity enhancing technologies. Vegetable cultivation relies heavily on private investments in irrigation, particularly open wells and borewells. Government irrigation schemes have been targeted primarily toward rice. Although more than half of irrigated parcels of land are served by government irrigation and the number of parcels with access to government irrigation has grown 35 percent in the past 15 years, the expansion of private irrigation provision has been almost twice as fast, growing 67 percent in the same period.

Papua New Guinea low-skill urban wage survey (2025) report

The Papua New Guinea Low-Skill Urban Wage Survey (PLUWS 2025) was designed to fill an information gap on low-skill wage employment and dietary purchasing power in select urban areas across Papua New Guinea. Telephone interviews were conducted from June 2nd through November 10th of 2025, that purposefully interviewed urban wage earners in low- or low-medium1 skill occupations in cities where the Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA) is also collecting monthly fresh food prices. In doing so, the survey collected information from individuals based in Port Moresby, Kokopo, Lae, Mount Hagen, Banz, Goroka, and Daru, with a focus of achieving a total survey sample that supported gender disaggregated analysis of wage rates, payment preferences, purchasing power, and household and individual characteristics of low- and medium-low skill wage earners. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) partnered with a large PNG mobile phone company, Digicel, who randomly selected mobile phone clients from comprehensive lists of users geographically mapped to each of the urban cities identified for survey implementation. Two sampling strategies were implemented (described in more detail below) which resulted in a lower-bound (e.g., greater share of informal employment, less training or education, and lower wage rates) and upper-bound sample of low-wage earners. The final survey sample consists of 590 low- and medium-low skilled wage workers. Of which, approximately 2/3 of survey respondents are men (69% men and 31% women). The survey asked questions about individual characteristics (gender, age, marital status, education, etc.) of the respondent and the respondent’s household (assets, household composition, decision-making regarding earned incomes, etc.); characteristics of respondents’ employment; preferences for wage payment in money or in-kind; and the respondents’ diet quality. This report provides results tables and a discussion of the descriptive statistics by gender and sample approach (lower-bound and upper-bound) of low-skill wage workers.

Risk aversion and credit access: Solving financial exclusion through contract innovation

Credit market failures may reflect voluntary withdrawal by risk-averse borrowers in addition to supply-side constraints. We conduct a randomized trial with 1,517 Bangladeshi households, offering cattle financing through conventional loans or profit-sharing contracts that spread risk between the farmer and the financial partner. Overall, interest in and take-up of the profit-sharing contracts were modestly higher than the conventional loans. However, conventional loan take-up was much lower among risk-averse farmers, and profit-sharing eliminated the take-up gap between risk-averse and non-risk-averse farmers. We find that it is male risk preferences that are associated with these decisions even when contracts explicitly target women. Livestock investment increases under both contracts with no evidence of moral hazard under profit-sharing.

Synopsis: Implications of increased urbanization and consumer awareness on future food supplies in Tanzania

This research quantifies how demographic change, urbanization, and healthy diet requirements will reshape Tanzania’s food supply. Using contextualized healthy diet benchmarks, it identifies the scale, composition, and policy implications of food system transformation needed to ensure healthy diets in Tanzania by 2050. Tanzania’s population is projected to more than double by 2050, with rapid urbanization increasing the share of urban residents from one-third to more than half and intensifying pressure on food supply systems and rural–urban linkages. To align with this growth, annual food supplies also need to increase by more than double—from about 24 million tons in 2020/21 to 52–62 million tons by 2050—but must do so with fewer food producers. Current diets are dominated by cereals and sugar, while fruits, vegetables, dairy, eggs, and animalsource foods are substantially under-consumed across all four geographic population strata. Future food system transformation should primarily focus on increasing supplies of dairy, eggs, fruits, and vegetables, and, for diets focused on micronutrients, meat and fish. For most priority foods, required productivity gains fall within current global technological frontiers, but environmental constraints—particularly for livestock—necessitate climate-smart intensification and protein source substitution. High postharvest losses, misalignment between nutrition priorities and agricultural policy—specifically Tanzania’s Agriculture Master Plan—and weak rural–urban food system integration are critical bottlenecks and policy entry points for achieving healthy diets sustainably.

Small-scale commercial vegetable farming in Odisha: Who is involved, how is it changing, and how inclusive is it?

The research project “Tracking commercial small-scale producers for inclusive agricultural transformation” (INCATA) studied the relationships between commercial small-scale producers (farmers) and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), to understand whether and how these relationships could contribute to inclusive agricultural transformation.

Towards inclusive and sustainable vegetable value chains in Odisha: Some policy recommendations

Odisha grows about 10.9 million tons of vegetables in 2023-24 from 0.77 million hectares, representing about 8% of Gross Cropped Area. In recent years, it has witnessed a significant increase in vegetable production and is presently the 7th largest vegetable growing state in India accounting for over 5% of national vegetable production. At the same time, there is a perception that demand for vegetables far outstrips supply; consequently, the state depends on other states to make up the shortfall in supply. The Government of Odisha has focused on increasing vegetable production with a range of innovative policies and has recognized that vegetable farming as a key pathway to agricultural commercialization and doubling farmers’ incomes. Against this backdrop, we undertook an ambitious research effort as part of a larger project titled INCATA to document the pace and nature of transformation of vegetable value chains in Odisha. The study comprised many components, including rapid reconnaissance visits to 19 districts in the state, secondary data analysis and qualitative case studies. Our research culminated a large-scale survey of 5640 value chain actors (farmers, inputs suppliers, wholesalers, commission agents and retailers). In addition, we documented the profile of 11,800 traders across 158 vegetable markets and 35,913 households in vegetable growing villages in 24 blocks and 6 districts as part of a listing exercise. We summarize the results of this study in a series of project notes and research briefs. This policy note aims to distill lessons from the study to identify a set of policy interventions.

Ice use in the fisheries value chain in Hadramawt: Findings from a qualitative survey

A qualitative study of ice use in the fisheries value chain in Hadramawt, Yemen, reveals the following key findings. • Ice is a widely used and essential input in the fishery value chain in Hadramawt. Almost all fish transported, traded, and retailed in surveyed markets relies on ice to maintain its quality. • Ice production capacity has expanded in recent years, but many ice factories face serious operational challenges, including unreliable electricity supply, high fuel costs, aging equipment, and volatile demand. • Ice use by fishers varies by type of vessel and target species. All large offshore vessels (abri) depend on ice. Small-scale houri sometime use ice when fishing for high-value demersal species, which deteriorate quickly without ice, but rarely when targeting pelagic fish. • Traders use large quantities of ice for transporting fish inland and exporting it overland and would be unable to operate their businesses without access to ice. • Retailers use ice strategically. Surveyed retailers displayed small quantities of un-iced fish to customers, in line with consumer preferences, but replenished their displays throughout the day with fish chilled in cool boxes out of sight. • Rates of physical and economic loss and waste in all segments of the fisheries value chain in Hadramawt may be lower than generally thought. • Energy and infrastructure are the most critical constraints to the performance of enterprises in most segments of the fisheries value chain in Hadramawt.

Changes in work participation across genders in rural India: Evidence from 2019 and 2024 time use surveys

This study examines gendered patterns of time use in rural India using nationally representative time use surveys from 2019 and 2024, capturing shifts in labor force participation amid significant socioeconomic changes, including the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis reveals a notable rise in rural women’s labor force participation—from 32 percent to 35.9 percent in agriculture—with a 38 percent increase in their paid agricultural work time. However, this progress coexists alongside entrenched gender disparities in unpaid domestic work, where women continue to spend nearly five hours daily, limiting their engagement in nonagricultural employment, which remains male-dominated and stagnant for women. Using multivariate regression and Gelbach decomposition, the study identifies gender, landholding, education, income, and caste as significant determinants of time allocation. Yet, much of the increase in women’s work time is driven by unobserved factors, likely linked to post-pandemic livelihood adjustments and structural constraints. The findings underscore that recent gains in women’s participation reflect genuine shifts rather than statistical artefacts but caution that without addressing time poverty, gender norms, and access to diversified livelihoods, these gains may not translate into sustainable empowerment. The paper calls for integrated policy measures, including gender-responsive agricultural support, public care infrastructure, skill development, and behavioral interventions to rebalance domestic responsibilities and facilitate women’s transition to higher productivity sectors.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, January 2026

Average retail prices of maize declined in all monitored markets in January by 16 percent on average. The price decline was driven by cheap imports of maize. Imports dominated cross-border trade in maize despite some strong but localized informal exports to Zambia.

Improving fruit and vegetable intake and production in Sri Lanka: An evaluation of the FRESH end-to-end approach

Inadequate diets are a major contributor to malnutrition and the leading risk factor for morbidity and mortality worldwide. Low fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake contributes significantly to these burdens. F&Vs are essential sources of micronutrients, and their production has a lower environmental footprint compared to other nutrient-dense foods, making them critical for both health and sustainability. Despite these well-documented benefits, global F&V intake remains below the recommended 400 grams (about 5 servings) per person per day. This is particularly true in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where less than 20% of adults meet this target. This is likely due to a complex interplay of factors including availability, affordability, accessibility, and other context-specific barriers. Narrowing F&V intake gaps requires a nuanced understanding of the interconnected factors influencing their consumption. The approach must be comprehensive and encompass addressing factors across the food system. Generating high-quality, context-specific evidence on these factors is essential to designing effective strategies that enhance F&V desirability, affordability, accessibility, and availability, ultimately supporting healthier, more sustainable diets.

Myanmar Household Welfare Survey Round Nine: Sample Report

The ninth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS)–a nationwide phone panel consisting of 11,865 households–was implemented between July 15, 2025, and November 4, 2025. The main objectives of MHWS Round 9 are to: 1) Collect nationally and state/region-level representative data on household welfare across Myanmar. 2) Assess household income sources, employment conditions, food security, dietary diversity, coping strategies, and access to assistance. 3) Monitor changes in household welfare in the context of ongoing political, economic, and environmental shocks. 4) Provide timely evidence to inform stakeholders, development partners, international and national NGOs, and other relevant agencies. The respondents interviewed in the MHWS were purposely selected from a large phone database aimed at being representative at the region/state level and urban/rural level in Myanmar. A novel sampling strategy in combination with the development of household and population weights allows for estimates that are nationally, regionally, and urban/rural representative.

Assessment of potato tuber quality in Kenya: Baseline quality assessment survey report

Potato is the second most important staple crop in Kenya after maize, supporting its food security and providing livelihoods for millions in the value chain, including over 800,000 smallholder farmers. However, fragmented marketing systems, inadequate post-harvest infrastructure, and limited access to quality inputs constrain the performance of the sector and result in severe post-harvest losses. This qualitative study provides empirical analysis on potato tuber quality among 233 farmers in Nakuru and Nyandarua counties, and among traders six different main markets in Kenya. Our findings establish a baseline for potato quality at the farm-level and in major markets, tracking individual shipments to measure degradation during transit due to lack of crucial market conditions and logistical bottlenecks. Our main results reveal some important elements that need to be addressed. Overall, potato quality is compromised at the farm gate, but this initial damage is dramatically amplified post-harvest, with skin abrasions more than doubling and rotting increasing threefold as produce moves along the value chain. Critically, these losses are compounded by limited quality-based sorting and the inadequate use of storage infrastructure, with negligible adoption of cold storage. The study also demonstrates that local/traditional handling practices and poor infrastructure quality are bigger drivers of loss than transport distance. Our research concludes that most economic losses could be addressed, being the direct result of identifiable failures in infrastructure, handling, access to information, and quality governance throughout the value chain. Most aspects of which can be mitigated with digital tools. Indeed, digital tools can enhance farmer-buyer linkages, promote digital education and advisory services -also through collaboration with Farmer Service Centers, encourage cold storage via digital incentives. These recommendations position digital tools as a catalyst for transforming the potato value chain, both directly and indirectly mitigating post-harvest losses while boosting resilience and incomes.

The potential impact of wheat stem rust on global agricultural supply, demand, and food security, considering market interactions

Wheat stem rust, a fungal disease that can be highly devastating under the right environmental conditions, was reduced to non-economically damaging levels during the Green Revolution. However, it has reemerged as a global threat to wheat production due to the appearance of new virulent strains in Uganda in 1999 that have spread steadily to other geographic areas. Wheat experts warn that the disease could pose a catastrophic threat to the global wheat supply if not monitored. Considering the importance of wheat as a principal source of calories, nutrients, and farm income throughout the world, assessments of the potential impacts of the disease are urgently required in order to formulate an appropriate response. Published assessments so far vary widely in method and results, and generally focus on wheat production losses alone, without considering how markets may offset or aggravate impacts (spillover effects). Here we take an integrated assessment approach and examine a set of “what-if” scenarios to account for direct and indirect economic and food security impacts of wheat stem rust in various world regions over the years 2026–2050. The severity and frequency of epidemics is introduced into the modeling framework based on a survey of international wheat experts. The results suggest that global market incentives may offset the worst impacts of wheat stem rust in most affected areas via international trade. However, the market mechanism simultaneously precipitates considerable food insecurity in areas far from any epidemic, as farms in these areas reallocate resources from the domestic cereal market to the wheat export market, in response to price signals.

Essential commodities prices, availability, and market actors’ perceptions: December 2025

Impact of Climate Change on Cost and Cost Efficiency of Solar Irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa

This dataset contains output data of IFPRI’s solar irrigation sizing and cost estimation model which show the impact of climate change on investment cost of adopting stand-alone solar irrigation system and its cost efficiency relative to diesel irrigation system over Sub-Saharan African region.

Synopsis: Implications of urbanization, consumer awareness, and income trends on future food supplies in Senegal

Our food systems (FS) are unable to provide healthy diets in a just and sustainable way, an observation which prompted the United Nations Food Systems Summit to establish a consensus on the need to transform FS. This study examines potential entry points—and resulting implications—to improve Senegal’s FS following expected trends in population growth and urbanization, consumer awareness, and income growth. The study finds that total food supplies need to triple by 2040, with animal-source foods (ASF), fruits, and vegetables requiring increases of a factor of four or more. The study identifies potential strategies to increase the production of these food products while also considering their environmental impact. The study underscores the importance of socially inclusive and equitable outcomes and highlights the need for significant investments to reduce food waste in targeted subsectors.

Using small-object detection to track solar irrigation scaling: Opportunities and limitations

In this study, we pilot a workflow in Fayoum, Egypt, using freely available high-resolution imagery and an iteratively expanded, custom-labeled dataset, to explore whether small-object detection can feasibly track solar-powered irrigation adoption. If feasible, this approach can provide a low-cost, scalable foundation for evidence-based policy. Beyond mapping adoption, the method also has potential to link solar irrigation detection to environmental and agricultural outcomes, such as vegetation dynamics, cropping intensity, or water use efficiency.

Can a light-touch graduation model enhance livelihood outcomes? Evidence from Ethiopia

When prices spike: Identifying excessive volatility in fertilizer markets

Sharp and volatile fertilizer price movements can hinder adoption and reduce agricultural productivity, especially among vulnerable smallholders. Using a nonparametric location-scale approach to model price returns, we quantify the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR)—the high return threshold exceeded with low probability—to identify excessive price spikes in potash, urea, and di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) markets. We use the bias-corrected estimator from Martins-Filho et al., (2018) and propose a simpler estimator based on Hill (1975). Backtesting results indicate superior performance of the Hill-based estimator, supporting its value as a convenient method for detecting unusual fertilizer price surges amid recurring global volatility.

Learning effects of an experiential groundwater resource game in north-eastern Ghana

The growth of dry season farming in Ghana is putting increased pressure on groundwater resources. Using mixed methods this paper examines the learning effect of an experiential groundwater resource game in Ghana’s Upper East Region that simulates real-life resource use and common-pool resource management dilemmas. Results indicate short and medium-term learnings associated with participation in the game. During the game, group interaction and communication improved cooperation and led to more sustainable game behaviours. The gender-specific analysis indicates that females and males may learn and respond differently to the game. Males exhibited more sustainable game behaviours with increased communication and rules whereas female groups showed more learning from round to round. The positive learning effects from the game persisted 12 months after the intervention. Debriefing and focus group participants mentioned lessons learned about the depletable and shared nature of groundwater resources and the importance of communication and collective governance. Participants also described selecting water conserving crops and creating community watering schedules to manage water use. Findings highlight the important role experiential learning games can play in increasing knowledge, motivation, and agency associated with sustainable natural resource use.

Wholesalers and the transformation of the “hidden middle” of the aquaculture value chain in Bangladesh

The rapid growth of aquaculture in Bangladesh over the past 30 years has been accompanied by a proliferation of wholesalers. Wholesalers are often assumed in academic and public discourse to be exploitative and inefficient: extracting rents rather than driving technological change. This view gives rise to development programs that seek to bypass marketing intermediaries or upgrade their practices. However, there has been little rigorous research on the behavior of wholesalers and its implications for outcomes of value chain performance, including food security. To address this gap, we implemented a statistically representative survey of 229 aquatic food wholesalers in 31 markets in one of Bangladesh’s most important aquaculture zones. We found the following. (1) The wholesale segment of the aquaculture value chain has grown rapidly. (2) Markets are increasingly competitive, with open auctions leading to disintermediation and transparent pricing. (3) Wholesale businesses operate on thin margins. (4) Very little food loss or waste occurs in the farm, wholesale, or retail value chain segments in the study zone. (5) Trading aquaculture products generates substantial employment for men but little for women. Contrary to popular belief, the midstream of the aquaculture value chain in southern Bangladesh is dynamic and efficient. The paper contributes to a growing literature highlighting the contributions that micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in the “hidden middle” segments of agri-food value chains make to food security.

Global assessment of childhood growth monitoring: Cross-sectional survey of national policies and practices

Background Monitoring children’s growth is crucial in paediatric care for early identification of health issues, with the World Health Organization (WHO) advocating for its practice throughout childhood. However, the focus and implementation of growth monitoring vary globally, reflecting different health priorities and practices. Methods We conducted a global, cross-sectional, questionnaire-based survey, targeted at representatives of the ministry responsible for growth monitoring and promotion, and at representatives of national paediatric societies. Results We obtained responses from 122 countries. Of these, 88% had national growth monitoring guidance, most often issued by the ministry of health. Weight was the most consistently measured early childhood growth monitoring indicator, recorded routinely in 98% of countries during growth monitoring visits for children aged <1 year. The WHO Child Growth Standards were used in 86% of countries. The most common follow-up action for growth faltering was provision of nutritional or health advice, cited by 91% of respondents for children aged <1 year, with advice frequency decreasing as child age increased. Conclusions Childhood growth monitoring is widely adopted, but implemented with considerable variation across countries. Strengthening its impact will require standardising indicators, integrating evidence-based guidelines into primary care, and ensuring equitable, actionable use across age groups.

When water runs out: Adaptation to gradual environmental change in Indian agriculture

Increasing water scarcity will affect hundreds of millions of smallholder farmers in coming decades, but little is known about the likely forms of adaptation. This study exploits a natural experiment in which heterogeneous geological formations affect the rate of groundwater depletion across 40 villages in Gujarat, India, to provide novel evidence on this question. The analysis reveals that greater water scarcity leads to widespread declines in irrigated agriculture and enhanced migration to cities, but only among dominant socio-economic groups. No evidence is found of substantial compensating investments in water-efficient technologies or in human capital, despite farmers having long been aware of the decline in water levels.

A descriptive analysis of smartphone access and frontline service delivery during the COVID-19 lockdown in Chhattisgarh, India

Validity of the Diet Quality Questionnaire Compared with Observed Intake for Estimating Population-Level Diet Quality in Rwandan Adults

Background The diet quality questionnaire (DQQ) is a standardized low-burden tool for collecting data on minimum dietary diversity for women (MDD-W) and other population-level diet quality indicators related to risk of noncommunicable disease (NCD). Although 24-h recalls (24hRs) are often used for evaluating validity of DQQ, they may underestimate consumption of specific food groups. Therefore, comparison with observed weighed food records (OWFR), can provide a more accurate assessment of DQQ criterion validity. Objective The aim of this study is to evaluate criterion validity of DQQ for estimating population-level diet quality using OWFR and 24hR as reference methods. Methods Cross-sectional data were collected among 281 Rwandan adults (Musanze district), using OWFR, DQQ, and 24hR on the same day. Diet quality indicators derived from each method were compared using parametric and nonparametric methods and the method of triads, which calculates pairwise validity coefficients to evaluate accuracy (low: <0.30; moderate: 0.30–0.70; high >0.70). Results Mean percent agreement in food group consumption data was high: 93% (DQQ-OWFR; DQQ-24hR). Compared with OWFR, DQQ overestimated MDD-W-prevalence [DQQ: 46.0% compared with OWFR: 40.4%; +6 percentage points (pp), P > 0.05], whereas using 24hR, the MDD-W-prevalence was 29.8% (16.2 pp < DQQ, P < 0.05, and 10.6 pp < OWFR, P < 0.05). Compared with OWFR, mean scores of food group diversity score (FGDS) and NCD-protect were 0.2 (ns) and 0.2 (P = 0.01) points higher by DQQ, respectively, and 0.4 (P < 0.001) points higher by DQQ compared with 24hR. NCD-risk median scores were 0 across methods. For DQQ, validity coefficients were 0.70 (FGDS), 0.67 (NCD-protect), and 0.66 (NCD-risk), compared with 0.93, 0.89, and 0.59 for OWFR, respectively, and 0.84, 0.83, and 0.98 for 24hR, respectively. Conclusions The DQQ showed high agreement with OWFR and 24hR for collecting population-level food group consumption data, and slight overestimations of diet quality indicator scores compared with observed intakes. DQQ is a valid and practical method for collecting population-level food group consumption data and estimating diet quality.

Associations between Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) and obesity in women of reproductive age in Northern Tanzania: A cross-sectional study

Background Obesity is an increasing problem among women of reproductive age (WRA) in Tanzania. Objective We described WRA’s nutritional status by socio-demographic factors and assessed associations with diet quality. Methods We analysed baseline data from a cluster-randomised controlled trial in Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions (n=2,415). Diet was assessed using a quantitative 24-hour recall. We calculated the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS; 0-49), with higher scores indicating healthier diet. General obesity was defined as body mass index (BMI)≥30 kg/m2; morbid obesity as BMI≥35 kg/m2; and central obesity as: waist circumference (WC)≥80 cm, WC≥88 cm, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR)≥0.85, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR)≥0.50, and WHR≥0.85 or BMI≥30 kg/m2. We tested associations between diet quality and nutritional status using generalised linear models controlling for age and sociodemographic factors and tested interactions to assess differential associations by age groups. Results The prevalence of general obesity was 25.1%, morbid obesity 8.4%, and central obesity 48.2-71.6% depending on the definition. Mean GDQS was 20.9±3.9. General and central obesity were more prevalent among women who were older, less educated, had light physical labour occupations, were in the highest wealth quintile, and lived in more urbanised villages and in more food secure households. Higher GDQS was associated with lower risk of morbid obesity: risk ratio (RR) 0.97 (95% CI 0.94, 1.00). Higher GDQS was also associated with 0.25-0.27 kg/m2 lower BMI, 0.54-0.66 cm lower WC, and 0.53-0.58 cm lower hip circumference in women 30-49 years of age. Conclusion Better diet quality emerged as a protective factor for morbid obesity and for other obesity measures among women 30-49 years of age. Our study suggests that interventions to improve diet quality in Tanzania should target women in their thirties and forties and those with lower physical activity and higher education, food security, and wealth to maximise effectiveness.

Empowerment unveiled: Gender dynamics and the impact of nutrition-sensitive agriculture interventions among ethnic minority groups in northern Vietnam

Gender equality and women’s empowerment are key global agendas, yet women often face marginalization compared to men. Nutrition-sensitive agriculture interventions (NSAs) often aim to benefit women but their impacts on women’s empowerment remain unclear. This study focuses on: 1) assessing the empowerment levels of women and men from three ethnic minorities in rural northern Vietnam (Thai, H’Mong and Dao) with the Project-level women’s empowerment in agriculture index (Pro-WEAI); 2) examining the potential of NSA to improve women’s empowerment during COVID-19 pandemic; and 3) applying an intersectional lens by analyzing how empowerment and treatment effects vary by ethnic subgroups. We conducted a Randomized controlled trial (RCT) involving around 600 rural households from 36 clusters that were randomly assigned to one of the following three treatment arms: receiving agriculture and nutrition training; receiving seed provision on top of the training; and a control group. We found that both men and women experienced disempowerment, due to ethnicity and systemic ethnical marginalization. While no significant gender discrimination in resource access was found, women faced limited mobility, overburdened workload and diminished agencies. Empowerment experiences varied across ethnicities. The NSAs improved women’s mobility and group membership, yet carried different implications across ethnicities, potentially due to the interaction between the intervention, initial contextual conditions and the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, NSAs alone cannot achieve structural empowerment. Meaningful and lasting empowerment requires integrated approaches that address interconnected social, political, and cultural factors.

Network effects in household consumption patterns: Evidence from northern Ghana

We study peer effects in consumption patterns and their associated welfare implications among rural farm households in northern Ghana using a panel data set. We construct a social interaction network based on household-specific locations and employ a spatial econometric approach that leverages the structure of the peer networks to identify peer effects. The results indicate that peers’ consumption patterns significantly influence individual consumption decisions, with the magnitude of this effect varying across farm households depending on their resource endowments. We also find that information exchange and partial risk-sharing behaviors drive these peer effects. Overall, our findings suggest that government interventions aimed at enhancing household consumption through transfers would be more effective if targeted at households with relatively large peer networks. In addition, anti-poverty and income-improvement programs can leverage peer networks to enhance their overall impact.

Pork safety across Vietnam’s traditional markets: microbial contamination and vendor knowledge, attitudes, and practices

Foodborne diseases are a major cause of illness in low- and middle-income countries, and most are due to fresh foods sold in traditional markets. Contamination with foodborne pathogens, especially Salmonella spp., continues to be common in these markets. To better understand why this is the case, this study assessed total bacteria count (TBC) and Salmonella in pork across Vietnamese traditional markets and evaluated vendors’ food safety knowledge, attitudes, and practices, examining their associations with contamination. Data was collected in 68 markets across five provinces, with up to 10 pork vendors per market randomly selected. Microbiological data were collected through cut pork samples and cutting boards swabs (n=396), along with structured questionnaires and observations with vendors (n=486). Cutting board swabs were analyzed for TBC only, while cut pork was tested for both TBC and Salmonella. Linear and generalized linear mixed-effects models were constructed to identify risk factors for TBC and Salmonella prevalence. The overall Salmonella prevalence in cut pork was 64.4% (255/396) and was significantly higher in southern provinces (86.8%) compared to the north (47.5%, p < 0.01). TBC was high in pork and cutting boards (6.4 log₁₀CFU/g and 6.9 log₁₀CFU/cm², respectively), and only 30% of the pork samples met the Vietnamese standard for TBC in fresh meat. Selling of organs was associated with a higher TBC (coefficient = 0.13, CI: 0.01–0.26, p = 0.03) and greater Salmonella risk (OR = 2.04, p = 0.009). Temperature significantly increased both outcomes (p < 0.001), while using easy-to-clean surfaces reduced TBC levels (coefficient = -0.16, CI: -0.30 to -0.01, p = 0.03). Vendors demonstrated limited food safety knowledge and mixed attitudes. Observations revealed poor hygienic practices, such as displaying pork on cardboard or cloth or lack of washing with soap and disinfectants, which was influenced by limited access to facilities and equipment. Regional differences suggested contamination levels were influenced by both environmental and market-related factors. These findings highlight the need for holistic interventions targeting an enabling environment, appropriate equipment, and behavioral incentives.

Understanding technology diffusion in the agricultural sector

The paper introduces the basic concepts related to adoption, diffusion and innovation in the agricultural sector. This paper introduces relevant definitions and issues, examines conceptual models of technology diffusion in agriculture, followed by a description of the process of technology discovery. The paper furthermore explores the channels and mechanisms of diffusion, the factors influencing adoption, the adaptation of technologies to local contexts, empirical studies illustrating innovation and diffusion patterns, the role of government policies and international organizations, and the impact of technology diffusion on agricultural productivity, sustainable development, and food security and livelihoods. The paper then discusses innovation and diffusion of agricultural biotechnologies and precision agricultural technologies by summarizing the experiences and lessons learned from insect resistant and herbicide tolerant maize, insect resistant cotton and precision agriculture technologies in a selected set of countries. The paper draws up policy lessons and recommendations that may be useful to policy and decision makers considering such technologies in their jurisdiction.

Global soybean trade dynamics: Drivers, impacts, and sustainability

Since the 20th century, the global soybean trade has undergone major changes, shaped by rising demand, climate-related risks, and shifting international dynamics. Despite its global importance, important gaps remain in understanding the complex drivers and sustainability challenges of this transformation. This review synthesizes both direct and indirect forces reshaping trade flows, spanning market dynamics, supply chain logistics, policy shifts, and technological innovation. We examine how soybean trade expansion has impacted deforestation, inequality, and food security, and assess the responses of governments and companies to address these challenges. Finally, we provide a forward-looking perspective on the strategic pathways needed to ensure a more resilient and sustainable global soybean system. The integrated insights offered in this review can inform sustainable trade strategies and foster cross-scale policy coordination for a more resilient global agri-food system.

Understanding farmers’ adoption patterns of biofortified crops in Uganda: A case of iron beans

The diffusion of agricultural technologies, such as biofortified crops, is often non-linear, characterised by adoption, discontinuation, and re-adoption. This study examines the factors shaping these dynamic patterns for high-iron beans (HIBs) in Uganda. Based on cross-sectional survey data, we employed a multinomial logit model to categorise and analyse farmer adoption status. The results reveal that a combination of socio-economic and institutional factors significantly influences adoption behaviour. Specifically, the gender and age of the household head, as well as participation in off-farm income, were key socio-economic predictors. Regarding institutional factors, access to reliable markets and the presence of payback schemes emerged as the primary drivers. These findings suggest that overcoming adoption barriers requires addressing both the demographics of farmers and systemic constraints. We recommend a strategic pivot towards decentralising seed production by establishing certified community seed enterprises and enhancing training programmes that focus on both agronomic practices and market linkages to ensure the sustained cultivation of HIBs.

Tracing the economic impacts of the 2025 US tariff increases and evaluating possible responses: An analysis for Papua New Guinea

Restrictions on global trade can contribute to adverse economic outcomes in developing countries. Perverse outcomes include reduced export opportunities and higher input costs for essential goods. Policymakers in Papua New Guinea (PNG), as in other developing countries across the world, have therefore been concerned about global trade uncertainty as geopolitical tensions and protectionist policies have escalated throughout 2025. In April 2025, the United States (US) implemented a new tariff policy that included a baseline 10% tariff on goods from all countries, including PNG, along with higher “reciprocal tariffs” on countries with large trade deficits. The PNG government confirmed it would not retaliate but would instead pivot trade toward Asia-Pacific partners such as China, Indonesia, and Japan. In July 2025 PNG’s exports to the US were subjected to a 15% reciprocal tariff under an updated U.S. tariff schedule. In the ensuing months, some countries managed to finalize bilateral trade deals with US and reduced the tariff rates, while others are still under negotiations. According to the US trade policy 2025, the increment in reciprocal tariff on PNG is a result of the country’s failure to take sufficient steps to align with the US (The White House, 2025). In this note, we provide a rapid assessment of the potential impacts of US tariff hikes on PNG’s economy, specifically on trade, GDP, and household income. We consider the two following scenarios: Scenario 1—only US imposes additional tariffs (10 percent, 15 percent, and 30 percent), and PNG does not reciprocate. Scenario 2—PNG reciprocates with equivalent tariffs on the commodity import from the US. This note provides a rapid assessment of impact of US tariff policy on key macroeconomic indicators of PNG. This also helps derive quick policy insights into whether it would be advantageous for PNG to respond with higher tariffs or to accept the US’s higher tariff. Though US has imposed a 15% tariff on PNG’s export to US, due to uncertainty regarding the level of protectionism among the countries, this analysis also considers multiple tariff rates to understand the extent of economic losses in PNG due to relatively higher US tariff in the future.

Wages of the poor: Insights from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey in Q3/Q4 2025

We assess the wage levels and food purchasing power of casual laborers, who are among the poorest segment of the population, using data from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) collected in the second half of 2025, and compare these results with earlier survey rounds.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – December 2025

Rice prices declined sharply in December 2025 nationally, falling by 20 percent year-on-year and 5 percent month-on-month. These declines were driven by falling international prices and increased market supply from the monsoon harvest. All states and regions saw stable or declining prices month-on-month, with the largest drops observed in major rice-producing regions such as Ayeyarwady (30 percent) and Sagaing (19 percent). While these trends benefit consumers, they raise concerns for paddy producers, especially in light of rising agricultural input costs. Prices of pulses diverged. Green gram prices rose sharply year-on-year (21 percent), supported by export demand following China’s decision to ease its temporary suspension. In contrast, black gram, chickpea, and pigeon pea prices remained well below last year’s levels, reflecting weak demand from India. Maize prices also declined year-on-year (6.5 percent). Animal-sourced food prices surged over the past year, led by mutton (up 58 percent), due to lower production, while fish prices rose amid strong export demand. Multiple risks lie ahead, including weak international agricultural commodity prices, ongoing conflict, export quality concerns, import restrictions affecting livestock production, border trade and regional policy changes, and policy uncertainty, all of which may undermine agricultural incentives, farm incomes, and food security.

Proceedings of the IFPRI-AERA policy dialogue on “Transforming Agri-Value Chains: Emerging Frontiers for Agribusiness”

Transforming agri-value chains has emerged as a central policy challenge for India as agriculture shifts from a primary production-oriented sector to one that is increasingly shaped by markets, value additions and consumer demand. Moreover, as agriculture becomes increasingly integrated with markets, technology, finance and services, the role of agribusiness and value-chain institutions in shaping development outcomes has grown both in scale and complexity. Against this backdrop, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and CGIAR Program on Policy Innovations in collaboration with the Agricultural Economics Research Association (AERA) and its co-organizers, convened a policy dialogue on “Transforming AgriValue Chains: Emerging Frontiers for Agribusiness” on 3 December 2025 at ICAR–NAARM, Hyderabad. The policy dialogue brought together policymakers, researchers, practitioners, and development partners to examine how agri-value chains (AVCs) and agribusiness can drive inclusive, productive, and resilient agri-food system transformation in India.

Inequity by design: Systematic appraisal of the (in)equities in agriculture-nutrition-health research practices

Research practices in agriculture, nutrition, and health (ANH) shape outcomes on food security and nutrition (FSN). Inequitable research practices reflect power imbalances between institutions and communities, privilege Global North institutions, and are linked to poor FSN outcomes. We used a systematic scoping review to map (in)equitable research practices across the ANH research continuum (from agenda-setting to dissemination, collaboration, funding, and authorship). From five databases, 572 articles met inclusion criteria. Fostering research partnerships and community engagement were the most discussed steps along the research continuum (40%). “Authentic partnering” and “inclusion” were the most emphasized equity principles. Over one-third of articles provided practical tools to promote equity-centered research, including frameworks for community engagement, collaborative funding models, and inclusive authorship practices. Findings reveal both a characterization of equity challenges in ANH research and emerging pathways toward more just practices. Making research practices more equitable will drive FSN actions toward better outcomes and just food systems transformations.

Outcome assessment of the digital agriculture ecosystem in Ethiopia

Ethiopia is making gradual but notable progress toward the digital transformation of its agricultural sector, driven by investments in connectivity, digital infrastructure, and cross-institutional coordination. Recent policy milestones have established an enabling foundation for scale, including the Digital Ethiopia 2025 and Digital Ethiopia 2030, personal data protection regulation and governance frameworks, and national roadmaps that will steer investment and implementation over the next decade—particularly the Digital Agriculture Extension and Advisory Services (DAEAS) roadmap and the Digital Agriculture Roadmap (DAR). However, persistent structural constraints such as limited rural internet coverage, low smartphone penetration, and unreliable electricity continue to shape the pace and equity of adoption. This paper synthesizes Ethiopia’s digital agriculture ecosystem with a focus on technology, data and analytical capacity, and policy environment. In the technology landscape, work is ongoing to develop decision-support applications alongside digital channels for delivering advisory services. Evidence from multiple pilot initiatives suggests these tools can expand outreach cost-effectively and improve the timeliness and relevance of agronomic guidance. The success of various pilot projects, along with valuable lessons from earlier efforts, strong government commitment, and supportive policies, has driven further investment in Ethiopia’s digital ecosystem. Nonetheless, substantial gaps remain in data availability and quality that limits the production of high-quality and context-specific advisory content. In addition, the reach and intensity of extension services needed to translate digital innovation into sustained productivity gains, income and livelihoods is not yet at the level desired. While Ethiopia’s digital agriculture agenda is well-positioned for accelerated scale, its impact will depend on resolving foundational constraints in last-mile connectivity, power reliability, and the institutions and pipelines required for trustworthy data and localized advisory at national scale.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, December 2025

Retail prices of maize remained unusually stabile in December, when prices typically rise. Retail prices were stabilized by sustained informal imports at stable prices.

Market concentration in agricultural industries

Mergers and acquisitions in agricultural input industries have led to high levels of concentration such that a small number of firms account for most sales. We examine the concentration in seed, fertilizer, and livestock markets. Policymakers have raised concerns that such concentration may worsen consumers’ and farmers’ welfare. Agricultural market concentration might increase market power, but it might also result from economies of scale, in which case aggregate welfare may improve. The ongoing debate over tariffs has complicated the situation since higher tariffs, as well as antidumping and countervailing duties, might increase input costs for farmers.

Why India’s food and agricultural systems hold the key to climate action

The FABLE India team invited policymakers, researchers, and students to step into India’s food and climate future through a FABLE “Serious Game” and expert panels. Participants explored the complex trade-offs in agriculture, discovering how coordinated action, crop diversity, and farmer empowerment can turn challenges into low-emission solutions that also strengthen food security.

The state of fisheries in Hadramawt: Insights from a scoping review

In this project note, we review prior research and integrate insights from 14 semi-structured key informant interviews with experts on fisheries in southern Yemen to synthesize current knowledge on fisheries in Hadramawt governorate—home to the largest population of fishers in Yemen—and identify gaps that warrant further investigation.

Synopsis: Economywide assessment of CSA interventions in building resilient agri-food systems in Rwanda

This research extends IFPRI’s RIAPA modeling to include both the full implementation of PSTA 5’s climate smart agriculture and a once-in-five-year weather shock, and the interactions of both on agricultural sectors, agricultural GDP, and on national GDP. Main findings include: Rwanda’s agri-food system is highly vulnerable to climate variability due to its structural characteristics. Results indicate that CSA practices during the PSTA-5 period (2024/25–2028/29) increase agricultural GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points annually, with the largest impacts on horticulture and roots and tubers. However, several CSA interventions relate to infrastructural improvements and therefore the benefits extend over a longer time horizon, ultimately having even greater impact beyond PSTA 5. The weather shock causes dramatic declines in agricultural GDP (-1.6 percent), with horticulture affected most negatively, suffering a 2.4 percent decline. The joint Climate + CSA scenario depicts how CSA helps mitigate, but not fully eliminate, the negative impacts of weather shocks during the PSTA 5 period.

Community and household shocks and coping strategies: Findings from the ninth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (April – October 2025)

The ninth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was conducted between July and October 2025. This round follows eight previous rounds carried out since December 2021 and reflects conditions during April – October 2025. This report presents updated evidence on the conflict, climatic, service, and economic shocks households face and the coping strategies they adopt. In April–October 2025, insecurity and lawlessness intensified across Myanmar. About 21 percent of households reported feeling insecure, an increase from late 2024, with rural insecurity exceeding urban levels for the first time. Trust deteriorated sharply, with 25 percent reporting low community trust. Lawlessness remained widespread: 16 percent reported gambling, 16 percent petty crime, and 13 percent drug use. Urban areas were disproportionately affected by petty crime, bribery, and mobility constraints, while perceived conscription risk rose markedly, exceeding 40 percent in some regions. Climatic shocks continued to compound conflict-related stressors. About 19 percent of farm households reported being negatively affected by at least one climatic shock between April and October 2025. Flooding was the dominant shock, affecting 13 percent of households nationally, with particularly high exposure in Kayin, Shan, Bago, and Magway. Irregular rainfall and strong winds were less prevalent but remained locally significant, especially in Chin and Mon, reinforcing spatial disparities in vulnerability. Climatic shocks continued to compound conflict-related stressors. About 19 percent of farm households reported being negatively affected by at least one climatic shock between April and October 2025. Flooding was the dominant shock, affecting 13 percent of households nationally, with particularly high exposure in Kayin, Shan, Bago, and Magway. Irregular rainfall and strong winds were less prevalent but remained locally significant, especially in Chin and Mon, reinforcing spatial disparities in vulnerability. Economic pressures remained high despite modest improvements. About 37 percent of households reported being negatively affected by high food prices, similar to 2023 levels but slightly lower than late 2024. Price shocks were highly uneven, exceeding 50 percent in conflict-affected regions. Fuel price shocks affected 33 percent of households, declining from late 2024 as prices stabilized, though impacts remained severe in conflict-affected regions. Households continued to cope by reducing expenditures. Reductions in non-food spending were more common than cuts to food consumption across all regions. Conflict-affected states recorded the highest shares of households reducing both food and non-food expenditures, often exceeding 40 percent. While fewer households reported cutting back on staples and vegetables, most continued to reduce consumption of meat and fish, reflecting persistent affordability constraints for animal-source foods. Financial buffers remained extremely limited. Fewer than one in five households reported holding any cash savings. Borrowing was widespread, particularly among wage-earning households, with over half reporting outstanding debt. More than 50 percent of loans were sourced from friends and relatives, reflecting the near collapse of formal credit. Debt was primarily used for food, health, and basic needs, with a growing share allocated to medical expenses.

Fish for food security in Yemen: Insights from the Data in Emergencies survey

Fish is the most frequently consumed animal-source food in Yemen, apart from dairy. Fish consumption is highest in coastal southern Yemen but also very common in southern inland districts. Nine percent of households in coastal southern Yemen earned income from fishing. Earning fishing income is highly positively associated with consumption of fish or meat and with the frequency of fish or meat consumption. Sustaining fish stocks and fishing livelihoods is critical to food security and nutrition in southern Yemen.

Household-level impacts of the March 2025 earthquake in Myanmar: Findings from the ninth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (July-October 2025)

This report presents key findings on the impacts of the earthquake that hit Myanmar on March 28, 2025, along with insights into the ongoing recovery, based on the ninth round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey. This survey was conducted between July and October 2025, with a recall period covering April to October.

Sudan prices and availability monitoring survey (SPAMS): Methodology, coverage, and value addition

Sudan is facing profound economic and market disruptions driven by prolonged conflict, political instability, and severe macroeconomic deterioration. These shocks have substantially undermined agricultural production, disrupted supply chains, and weakened market functioning across the country. Agriculture, which remains central to livelihoods, food security, and economic activity in Sudan, has been particularly affected by infrastructure damage, population displacement, rising input and transport costs, and increasing fragmentation of markets. In this context, food availability and affordability have become highly volatile, with wide spatial disparities across states and localities.

School meals in the 21st century: Key evidence gaps and future directions

School meal programs are a widely implemented safety net with documented impacts across social protection, education, health and nutrition and high estimated returns to investment (Alderman et al., 2024). Globally, in 2022, these programs reached over 400 million children for a total investment of $70 billion a year(Global Child Nutrition Foundation, 2024). The School Meals Coalition (SMC) created in 2021 and involving 106 member countries, has brought momentum and new opportunities for school meals. Collaborative research activities by development partners from the SMC have included evidence generation, review and synthesis, and the identification of key research gaps on school meal programs. This article provides the basis for a common research agenda to support evidence generation aimed at improving action on sustainable school meal programs. These evidence gaps were generated through a series of activities including evidence reviews, expert consultations and stakeholder workshops undertaken by SMC partners.